Athletics: 1

M Javelin - Neeraj Chopra - Gold

Olympic champion. World champion. Neeraj Chopra has reached heights (and distances) no other Indian has ever reached in the sport of Athletics. He entered the history books by winning gold in Tokyo, but what has elevated him in my eyes is really everything that has come after. It would have been easy for Neeraj to rest on the laurels of his Tokyo success, to get a little complacent, to enjoy his newfound status as a celebrity. We saw none of that. He has handled the fame and accolades with amazing grace and humility. He has remained grounded, his interviews are some of the most heartfelt and wonderful in the sport. His dedication to continuously improve is apparent, and the work he has put in since Tokyo has led to an upward trend in performance since. 2022 World Champs silver, Diamond League champion, 2023 World Champs gold, Asian Games gold. He has thrown further and won more since Tokyo, demonstrating incredible consistency with a running streak of 23 consecutive podiums! To me, it is clear that he has done everything right in preparation. As long as he is fit, his streak will not end in Paris.

The real question for many is whether he can win. The first concern for Neeraj will be fitness, in that he has struggled a little with a groin injury this season. It has been managed well and it seems his team and he are not overly concerned about it affecting his performance in Paris. There are also some concerned about Neeraj not having cleared 90m yet. Many within the field have cleared that barrier, including Dehning, Peters, and Nadeem. The worry is that they might unleash a one-off monster throw that Neeraj could struggle to match. Personally, I am not worried about that. Historically, Javelin throwers rarely produce their best ever at the Olympics. There have been 125 90m+ performances recorded, but only 3 such throws at the Olympics. Furthermore, the fact that Neeraj has not joined the 90m club yet means very little. He’s gone as close as can be with his PB of 89.94m and other than Dehning’s 90m throw, which was evidently the exception not the rule, no other competitor has surpassed Neeraj’s 88.88m in the last 12 months.

Considering his competition, Neeraj has had the upper hand on most in recent times. He has only lost to 3 throwers since Tokyo. At his best, few will be able to live with him. Realistically, his biggest threat will be Jakub Vadlejch (CZE), with whom I anticipate a thrilling battle for gold. The top 2 from Tokyo have enjoyed many close contests, with Neeraj beating him for World Championship gold last year, while Vadlejch came out ahead in their only meeting in 2024, by just 2cm! Anderson Peters (GRN) and Arshad Nadeem (PAK) are strong throwers capable of 90m, but both face fitness struggles and have not rediscovered top form. If they are at peak performance in Paris, they too could challenge for the podium, but I don’t see them threatening a fully fit Neeraj at this point. The other major player could be Julian Weber (GER), the other 88m thrower this season, who is finding form at the right time. The veteran will be keen to add a medal to his record. Neeraj has won all 9 of their meetings since Tokyo, though.

Neeraj will not have it easy in Paris, having to contend not only with his rivals, but also with immense pressure and expectations. But since his victory in Tokyo, more than his strength as a thrower, he has proven his strength of character. I think he’s done everything he can to prepare. I am backing him to go all the way.

Weightlifting: 1

W49kg - Saikhom Mirabai Chanu - Bronze/Silver

On paper, Mirabai Chanu is the 2nd best lifter going into her event at Paris 2024, behind only defending Olympic champion Hou Zhihui (CHN). Unfortunately, she has been battling a severe hip injury she suffered at last year’s Asian Games that kept her out of competition for a few months and would have cost her precious training time leading up to the Games. She returned to competition at the IWF World Cup in April, but she lifted only 184kg, whereas her lifetime best is 205kg. That is not a cause for concern as the only important takeaway from the World Cup was that she was healthy again. But it does mean that we don’t have a very good idea of her form for Paris. She is fit, but is she back to her best? I am going to some that she will be somewhere close to it. The signs from her camp have been mostly encouraging, but more than that she is a fighter. Former WR-holder and world champion, India’s greatest ever lifter and one of our best sportspeople, I believe she can do well. 

If she is close to her best, she will win a medal. The only lifter in Paris capable of beating a fully fit Mirabai is Hou. Her injury troubles certainly open the door to other challengers, however, with Jourdan Delacruz (USA) and Surodchana Khambao (THA) also capable of the 200kg mark in the field, with Mihaela Cambei (ROU) and Rira Suzuki (JPN) not far off. We could see a closer battle in Paris; I can see a situation where we have 201kg in silver, 200kg in bronze, and 199kg in fourth. Mirabai is certainly capable of these weights, but we haven’t seen it in competition since 2022. A lot depends on how her preparation for the Games has been. She could be helped in a close battle by her strength in the clean & jerk, which is superior to most of her competitors, so she will have the advantage of knowing just what she needs at the end of the competition. Decision-making on what lifts to take will also be key on her coaches’ part.

Wrestling: 1

W53kg - Antim Panghal - Silver

Vinesh Phogat is one of India’s most decorated wrestlers. That she is going to the Olympics in a different weight category than normal to avoid clashing with a 19-year old rising star to compete in her preferred event in Paris, speaks volumes of the talent Antim Panghal possesses. Twice an U20 world champion and a senior world bronze medallist already, Antim has established herself as one of the best grapplers in the world in this event within just 12 months on the senior circuit. If she can replicate her performance from last year’s Worlds, she will be an Olympic medallist.

Antim is seeded 4th in the event (as of now), which crucially keeps her away from the invincible Akari Fujinami (JPN) until the final. The only other wrestler in Paris to have beaten her is also on the other side of the bracket, so the draw looks promising so far. There are still many strong wrestlers she hasn’t fought before who will have to contend with in Paris, including top seed Lucia Guzman (ECU) who is in the same half of the draw. Potentially dangerous unseeded opponents will be Dominique Parrish (USA) and Zeynep Yetgil (TUR). Antim has beaten the American in their 2 previous meetings, although the last was a very close match at the Worlds. If she meets Guzman in the semis, that will be a fascinating encounter which could go either way. But at her best, Antim can beat all except Fujinami. 

Amongst India’s other contenders on the mat will be Reetika Hooda (W76kg) and Vinesh Phogat (W50kg). Vinesh, as aforementioned, is one of the nation’s most decorated wrestlers, but an Olympic medal has evaded her thus far. It is a tall order for her to win one on her third event in a stacked W50kg competition in Paris, where she is also out of her element in an unnatural weight class. But she is a fighter and she has battled to get here. She fought administration, she stood up to the WFI, she battled injury, she battled a weight cut, she overcame opponents to qualify for Paris. So, while she may be an unseeded wrestler in a stacked draw in an alien event, she has a point to prove, so don’t count her out just yet. On the other end of the experience spectrum, young Reetika Hooda is also new to her event, coming up from 72kg just this year, and it seems to have suited her. She put up an excellent performance in the qualifying tournament and ranking series, her only loss this year a very close one at the hands of Worlds bronze medallist Tatiana Renteria. On the other hand, she has beaten multiple other wrestlers going to Paris in the event. It will be another competitive event, but Reetika has looked ready to beat anyone she faces this year this year, so she is one to watch out for.

After the way the WFI and other sporting authorities have demonstrated disregard for India’s female wrestlers, it is somewhat ironic that it is the women’s events that make up 5/6 in the team and provide the best chances of medals. But let that be a reminder of the significance of these athletes who work so hard to represent the nation. As fans, we must appreciate and support them. As a nation, we must do better for them.

Boxing: 1

W50kg - Nikhat Zareen - Silver/Bronze

The world champion in both 2022 & 2023, Nikhat Zareen is one of India’s brightest medal prospects in Paris. This will be her first Olympics, but she has maintained an impressive record since Tokyo. She has won 22 out of her 24 fights in the last 3 years, with CWG gold, Asiad silver, and two world titles in that period. Despite her world class performances, however, the Paris seeding system has her unseeded for the tournament draw, which might be her biggest obstacle, as she can beat all but the top 2-3 boxers in the category. 

Her 2 losses this quad have both been narrow split decisions, to Sabina Bobokulova (UZB) at Strandja Memorial this year, and Chuthamat Raksat (THA) at the Asian Games. If Nikhat’s path crosses theirs, they would be tricky opponents, but I would back Nikhat to get past. The two boxers I would worry about are two Nikhat has never faced: Tokyo silver medallist Buse Naz Cakiroglu (TUR) and Asian Games champ Yu Wu (CHN). Both have records as impressive as Nikhat’s and will be dangerous opponents. As long as Nikhat avoids their quarter in the draw, I am confident she can win a medal. Even if she does come up against them, we actually don’t know who’d win, because they have all been dominant in recent years but have not met each other. They will be mouthwatering matchups for sure, and Nikhat could well come out on top.

Nikhat is not India’s only prospect in the ring. Lovlina Borgohain (W75kg) will be looking to repeat her medal success form Tokyo. India’s only seeded boxer, she will only need 2 wins to secure her medal. The way the seeds have panned out, though, she will likely face top seed Li Qian (CHN) in the semis. Lovlina did beat her to win gold at the 2023 Worlds, but Li has beaten her twice since then, at the Asian Games and Strandja Memorial. As a medal decider, that will be a wonderful battle to watch, but I don’t know if Lovlina will prevail. That is also not to mention the fact that she could face a very difficult opening bout, with some very strong boxers entering unseeded. In particular, Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) is a rising youngster to look out for, while Cindy Ngamba (EOR) has had the upper hand on Lovlina in the past.

Another Tokyo Olympian to look out for is veteran Amit Panghal (M51kg), although he will be looking for anything but a repeat of Tokyo where he lost in the first round. He was rated very highly then as one of the most talented fighters in the category, and the skill remains evident. He has recently seemed a little rusty, however, either due to age or due to a lack of fighting as he was not chosen to compete anywhere in 2023. The results haven’t shown it - he hasn’t lost a fight this year. And the last he competed, he won gold at CWG 2022. But none of his fights this year were against any opponents he will face in Paris. At the final qualifying tournament, he did not look as sharp as his best, and he will need that sharpness to take on the top fighters in Paris. Especially the likes of Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB), the favourite who has competed a lot more the last 3 years and still not lost. He’s not the only one as it is a competitive draw in this event, and the real kicker is that Amit will be unseeded, so he might have a very difficult path to a medal. 

Badminton: 1

M Doubles - Satwiksairaj Rankireddy & Chirag Shetty - Bronze/Silver

The rising stars of Indian Badminton go to Paris with high hopes and great expectations. The duo known as SatChi go into Paris ranked 3rd in the world, but we no. 1 for a while earlier this year. They may have missed out on silverware at last year’s World Champs, but they have had a wonderful couple of seasons leading up to their 2nd Olympics. They have enjoyed recent success over most of the pairs in the competition, and they have been drawn an easily winnable group. Like multiple other Indian hopefuls, they too have had some injury trouble, but they have looked good after returning to competition so I am assuming they are at full fitness. In which case, I think they are certainly capable of a medal. They have beaten Chia/Soh (MAS) the last 3 times they’ve met, won their only match with Astrup/Rasmussen (DEN) this year, and Lee/Wang (TPE) who troubled them last year have to get through the group of death. I think the only pair they will lose to in Paris are Liang/Wang (CHN), and whether they meet in the semis or final will determine the colour of the medal.

India’s singles stars also have high hopes for Paris, with two M Singles entries, and PV Sindhu looking for a 3rd Olympic medal on the women’s side. Sindhu has not had her best couple of seasons, but she is known to peak at big events. The challenge is that it isn’t a break in competition or a run of bad form she is coming back from, but multiple injuries in recent seasons. She was back competing in the last few months, but is not yet back to her best. She has been drawn an easy group, but to win a medal she will likely have to lock horns with both Chinese shuttlers (6th & 2nd seeds). Now an interesting stat to know is that Sindhu has never lost to a Chinese shuttler at the Olympics or World Champs, but I suspect that might change in Paris. Her likely Ro16 matchup with He Bing Jiao is winnable, even though the latter beat Sindhu at the Asian Games and will be keen for revenge after Sindhu knocked her out in Tokyo. But after that she might have to face a fresh Chen Yufei (Ro16 bye), who has won all 3 of their matches since 2019, and who will be looking to defend her Olympic title. 

On the men’s side, we can hope for but probably not expect a medal. Not only are Lakshya Sen and HS Prannoy in adjacent groups, meaning they would meet in the Ro16, Lakshya was also drawn into the toughest group with a Tokyo semi finalist and one of the top seeds in Jonatan Christie (INA), who Lakshya has only ever beaten once, back in 2020. Lakshya is certainly capable of an upset and he is the better performing of the two Indians in 2024, but even if one of them were to upset Christie and reach the quarters, they would likely come up against Kodai Naraoka (JPN), who has also had the upper hand on both in recent matches.

Shooting: 3

W 50m Rifle 3 Positions - Sift Kaur Samra - Silver

M 10m Air Pistol - Sarabjot Singh - Bronze

X Team Air Pistol - Rhythm Sangwan & Arjun Singh Cheema - Bronze

Shooting is probably India’s strongest Olympic sport, but our last medal from it was back in 2012. That puts a lot of added pressure on young Indian marksmen (markspeople?) competing in a sport where the margins between victory and defeat are already vanishingly small. This has dampened some hopes for Indian shooting, but I am personally optimistic. It is a very talented team we take to Paris, and although young, many return from Tokyo, where they were younger still. 

Sift Kaur Samra, however, will be making her Olympic debut in the W50m3P event. If there’s pressure on every Indian shooter at the Olympics, consider the pressure on one who goes in as the world record holder. That is the tricky position Sift Kaur Samra finds herself in, having to contend not only with her opponents, but immense pressure at these Olympics. But they say pressure is a privilege. She has it because she is good. The ‘3 positions’ in this event are prone, kneeling, standing, in increasing order of difficulty. What sets Sift Kaur Samra apart is that her strength is in the toughest position - standing, which is where she makes up a lot of ground on her competitors. Her weakness is the kneeling position, where she is prone to the occasional off-day (no pun intended). The challenge is that the competition starts with that, so she will need to be at the top of her game from the outset. 

The first banana peel will be qualification - where this event in particular has had a couple of ridiculously competitive qualifying rounds. The likes of Mcintosh (GBR), Janssen (GER), Han (CHN) and Zhang (CHN) are really pushing the competition to make the final. But Sift has done very well in recent competitions, so as long as she keeps her nerve in the beginning with the kneeling round, she should be okay to reach the final. The challenge in the final is that they start with 15 shots while kneeling, followed by the 15 prone (where she can match the others). She will then have only 10 standing shots to make up any gap from the previous 30, before elimination begins. So, the key will be keeping up with the others in those first 30 shots, because although she is capable of far outperforming everybody else in the final 15, that won’t matter if she can’t get there. She’s maintained a good track record so far, winning Bronze at her only world cup this year, gold at the Asian Games, and silver at the Asian champs. As long as she limits the damage in the first 15 so that she is not caught in the first couple of eliminations, I think she can then rise through the ranks to get what I believe will be a Silver medal, potentially even threatening McIntosh for gold. If she can match the top shooters in the kneeling round, well…she broke the WR when she did that. I believe in her ability and wish her the best.

Our first opportunity for a medal, however, will be on the first day of the Games, in the Mixed Team Rifle event. The way this event works is 60 qualification shots for each 2-person team (30 per shooter), top 2 go to the gold medal match - next 2 to the bronze contest. I think the Chinese team will lock out the gold contest, but if the Indian duo of Arjun Babuta & Ramita Jindal perform to their potential, they should make the bronze final. Both have put up some excellent qualification scores in both the individual and mixed team events, and that qualifying pedigree should hold them in good stead. Then it will be a straight shootout for a medal, where the talent of both could well shine to bring home a Bronze. The main challenge will be that they may be up against a team with a lot more experience in such matchups for ISSF competitions, like Germany or Norway. 

Arjun Babuta will also have a strong chance to medal in the individual 10m Air Rifle event. Especially if his confidence is boosted by a medal in the team event. He has put up some very strong qualifying numbers, most notably in the most recent world cup, so he should make the final. I expect the final to have a clear favourite for gold in Sheng Lihao (CHN), but with a really close battle for silver and bronze behind. Arjun is capable of winning a medal - the question will be of who can cope with the pressure. He might have to contend with the likes of Du Linshu (CHN), world champ Istvan Pen (HUN), and world no. 1 Victor Lindgren (SWE).

The other men’s rifle event also holds promise for an Indian medal, with Aishwary Pratap Singh Tomar particularly hopeful as a world cup winner from 2023 and silver medallist from the Asian Games. The event looks to have a real battle in store, just to make the final, with a good 15-16 shooters performing on a really high level. APST has shown great qualifying form recently, however, making the final in the last world cup, which had ridiculously competitive qualification. Once he got there, he finished 8th, but that does not reflect his full potential. It will be difficult to beat the Chinese and Norwegian shooters in particular, but there will be little in the battle to decide the medals, and APST at his best can certainly threaten the podium.

The final medal hope on the men’s side is in the M10m Air Pistol, with Sarabjot Singh who has been one of the most consistent performers for India across the last 2 seasons. In what looks to be one of the most open-ended events on the range at the Games, Sarabjot goes in as the winner of the most recent World Cup. He has made several finals the last 2 years and has put up consistent scores in those finals. In an event as variable as this one, with the pressure of the Olympics, consistency is what could separate the medalists from the rest. And that is just what Sarabjot brings to the table.

Sarabjot’s strong qualifying performances could also bode well for the Pistol Mixed Team Event, where he is joined by Manu Bhaker. Manu was exceptional at the Olympic trials, but her form in international competition over the last couple of years have not been her best, which leaves some question marks over the duo. The other team of Rhythm Sangwan and Arjun Singh Cheema, however, could have a very good shot at the podium as Rhythm has been especially successful in this event in 2023 & 2024, with multiple medals. A team of Rhythm and Sarabjot might have been ideal, but there is promise nonetheless. The team of Rhythm & Arjun won silver at the Asian champs this year, with an encouraging qualifying score that could see them into a medal match at the Games too. If they produce their best in qualifying, they should be right up there with the top 2-3 pairs (Sarabjot & Manu could be there too), and I think Rhythm’s recent experience in finals of the event should serve the duo well to win a medal. 

There is the potential to win medals in these events and many more, but I think we will get one from Sift (fingers crossed), and 2 more from the others I’ve mentioned, but I’m not sure precisely which ones. I’m going to pick Sarabjot to win bronze in the M10mAP and Rhythm & Arjun to win bronze in the team pistol event, but really anything is possible.

Archery: 0

There’s a lot of excitement about the archery team this time around so I would still like to highlight their medal prospects, while explaining why I sadly am not picking them for any medals. Indian archers have been in great form in some of the world cups, but what is even more noteworthy is that the normal superpower of the sport, South Korea, have looked a little vulnerable in the world cups. Be that as it may, I don’t think form book matters for South Korea at the Olympics. They will win 4 golds and dominate all team events and the women’s individual. If you think you’ve seen competitive national trials for Paris 2024, at the Korean archery trials, a triple Olympic champion from Tokyo very much in her prime finished 21st! Essentially, we take a very strong team - perhaps are strongest ever, but there are too many other strong teams that I think will get the better of us. Most of our archers are also not the best in the ranking rounds, which could lead to difficult draws.

If we are to win a medal, however, I think our best shot is with Dhiraj Bommadevara. This is not only because the M Individual is historically the most open event where the Koreans look the most vulnerable, but also just because Dhiraj has been our best performer. He has been instrumental in our M Team world cup win, both mixed team bronze medals, as well as an individual bronze in the last world cup. He has also been consistently excellent in the ranking rounds, which could really help his draw. Indeed, he has been one of the best archers in the world this year. I can certainly see him reaching the QFs of the individual event, though beyond that it really depends on who he is drawn against and how they do on the day. He also presents a veritable podium threat in the mixed team event, especially alongside Deepika Kumari - but again, there will be several strong contenders in that event with a tough route to a medal.

Total

8 medals, 1 gold