Who will win Paris 2024?

Day 12 Update

Day 12 was a day where China would have hoped to take the lead, with some key events they needed to win, whereas the USA's gold chances for the day were much tougher. China held up their end of the bargain and won everything they were supposed to do, but they got little help from elsewhere and USA won 3 bonus golds! 

Li Fabin delivered China's first gold of the day with an expectedly dominant performance in the M61kg - the opening Weightlifting competition of the Olympics. The Chinese team had also dominated the 1st two days of the Artistic Swimming Team event and they capped it off with a brilliant Acrobatic routine to seal gold. Imortantly, they beat USA in Silver. Finally, Hui Zhihui was expected to win W49kg Weightlifting event quite comfortably, but Mihaela Cambei (ROU) showed up ready to fight! She led a sub-par Hui by 4 kilos after the Snatch, and produced a massive PB total of 205kgs. Hui was left with a do-or-die Clean & Jerk lift of 117kgs for gold and she came up clutch to make her final lift and take gold.

USA also had 4 opportunities for gold, but they were not clear favourites in any. The W Pole Vault was expected to be a battle between joint 2023 World Champs Nina Kennedy (AUS) and Katie Moon (USA) after favourite Molly Caudery (GBR) failed to make the final. Kennedy produced a top-class performance to overcome the Tokyo champ who produced her best form of the year. The M400m final saw 3 American competitors out of 8, with Michael Norman and Quincy Hall both veritable challengers for gold. The best performer of the year, however, was Matthew Hudson-Smith (GBR) and he's who I picked for gold. It looked like he would deliver on that too, until the last 10m, when Quincy Hall out-dipped him at the line after coming up with the most incredible final surge to take gold out of nowhere. The evening also saw the W Team Pursuit final in the velodrome, but USA first had to beat Great Britain to get there. I did not think they would, but they pipped the World Champs by <3 tenths of a second. The final was a nail-biting race where both teams rode themselves ragged, and New Zealand closed nearly a second in the last 2 laps, but they couldn't quite make up the gap. Finally, USA got their 3rd gold of the night via Sarah Hildebrandt in W50kg Wrestling. Vinesh Phogat had beaten the overwhelming favourite Yui Susaki (JPN) on the first day and reached the final. But she failed to make weight on the 2nd and was heartbreakingly disqualified, which meant Sarah had to face a much weaker opponent in the final, who she beat for gold. Alongside the gut-wrenching disappointment for Vinesh Phogat, this means USA got 3 bonus golds on Day 12 so they end on 27 to 25. That gives them a projected 3-medal lead in the final tally, meaning China now need some big upsets to pan out to come back into the race. 

Day 13 Update

Day 13 turned out to be a day with a lot of drama in this battle for the overall tally. One of the anticipated showdowns was in M Speed climbing where the top 2 in the world Wu Peng (CHN) and Sam Watson (USA) met in the semi-finals. Watson bettered his own world record in a previous round, but Wu Peng took the win in a nailbiting race separated by less than 0.1s. Wu couldn't convert it to Gold in the final though, losing another close race by 0.02s to Veddriq Leonardo (INA) in what was the 1st of 2 golds China lost to Indonesia on the day - M61kg Weightlifting the other, although that was not unexpected. China made up for it with an unexpected win in the C2 M500 Canoe Sprint race. Xie Siyi (M3m Diving), Luo Shifang (W59kg Weightlifting) & Chang Yuan (W54kg Boxing) provided their 3 other golds on the day. But USA had a chance to hit back on the track, with Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, Grant Holloway, and Noah Lyles in action. The hurdlers delivered in style, but Letsile Tebogo (BOT) had something to say about the M200m race, taking a dominant win in one of the best moments of the Olympics. Tara Davis-Woodhall salvaged USA's night, however, by taking the Long Jump win over Malaika Mihambo (GER), to keep USA in the lead. Perhaps the most important salvage for USA, though, was in Men's Basketball, where they were a couple of minutes away from being eliminated in the Semis by Serbia, but just managed to scrape by in the end to make the final. Women's Golf got interesting with the USA not featuring near the top after Day 2, and China sitting in 2nd place! That is worth keeping an eye on. 

Day 14 Update

China draw level! How costly will that relay blunder from USA turn out to be? Day 14 was full of drama for this storyline. It was a day USA were meant to gain an edge over China, with 4 great chances for gold. The W4x100m relay team delivered gold, Olivia Reeves dominated the W71kg Weightlifting competition to bring home gold, and Rai Benjamin won the highly-anticipated M400mH showdown with Warholm (NOR) & dos Santos (BRA). The USA M4x100m quartet had a howler however, with a botched first exchange ending their chances, and continuing their drought in the event. This left the door open for China who won 4 golds on the day. Xu/Sun successfully defended a difficult gold in the C2 W500 Canoe Sprint, while China took expected wins in Men's Table Tennis and W3m Diving with a dominant Chen Yiwen. Wu Yu gave them a fantastic end to the night, with another gold in women's boxing, defeating world champ Buse Naz (TUR). China's female boxers have enjoyed a wonderful Games. Golf didn't go their way, with Yin Ruoning having a bad 3rd day for China, while Rose Zhang rallied to 3rd place for USA. China also nearly managed the unlikeliest of upsets in the Women's Hockey final, where they pushed the overwhelming favouties Netherlands to a shootout, which Netherlands won. The fact that China made the Olympic final was shocking enough, but Netherlands are THE dominant force in the sport, nearly unbeatable. So, to push them so far was quite a result for China.

Day 15 Update

Could this be the day things turned in China's favour? The ended the day with a lead that few foresaw heading into the final day. W Golf didn't end up going USA's way, with Lydia Ko (NZL) capitalising on a bad day from the leader to take the win. They also missed a potential gold from B-Boy Victor, the Breaking world champion who was beaten in the semi-final. Nevin Harrison also failed to defend her Canoe Sprint Olympic title in the C1 W200, which she lost by a hair'width, with even the photo finish barely able to separate her from the winner Katie Vincent (CAN). But they still won 5 on the day with The Men's Basketball team delivering gold against a fierce French challenge in the final, while the women's football team found their way back to the top of international football with a narrow victory over Brazil in the final. They were clinical on the track for the other 3 golds of the day. Masai Russell took a tight 100mH race in a photo finish. The M & W 4x400 teams won 2 races for the ages, the men for the challeneg from Botswana, the women for coming within a tenth of the 36-year-old world record! USA missed a chance in the M High Jump, however, when Shelby McEwen and Hamish Kerr (NZL) had usurped the favourites to hold a joint lead, but McEwen opted for a jump-off rather than joint gold, which Kerr won for gold. That might yet prove costly with China enjoying a strong day, making use of all their opportunities to take the lead in the gold tally! They won 6 golds on the day, 3 with clear favoutires in Women's Table Tennis, Liu Huanhua in the M102kg Weightlifting, and Cao Yuan in the M10m Diving. They also won the Duet event in Artistic Swimming, as well as a bit of surprise win in the Rhythmic Gymnastics Group All-Around, China benefitting from Russia's absence for both of those. Li Qian then won another gold in the ring for Chinese boxing in the W75kg class. That gives them a 39-38 lead heading into the final day, with a chance for one more gold tomorrow. But USA still have 4 very credible opportunities for gold, which could turn everything on its head. But it is down to the wire.

The Final Day

39-38 to China to begin the last day of action at Paris 2024. 

China have the chance to add another gold to make it 40, with Li Wenwen in the W81kg+ Weightlifting event. She is the dominant favourite and is almost certain to take gold barring any major mistakes or injury. 

The USA can still take the overall win if they can capitalise on their 4 opportunities for gold on the final day. The first of these comes with Jennifer Valente - the defending champion in the W Omnium in Track Cycling. Having won the previous 2 world championships as well, she goes in as the favourite. But it is not an easy event to win, made up of 4 punishing and unpredictable endurance races with a very competitive peloton. The next comes on the Wrestling mat with Kennedy Blades in the W76kg final against reigning world champion Yuka Kagami. It should be a very close fight with both looking excellent on the first day. Their third chance for gold is in the Women's Volleyball final against Italy. Italy are the standout team this season, winners of the 2024 Nations League, and with only 2 losses in 2024. The teams met twice is June and Italy won both. Italy have only dropped 1 set in Paris, but USA have also looked much better during the Games than they did before. Finally, the USA's 4th chance for gold comes with the very last event of the Olympics, the Women's Basketball final against France. USA go in as heavy favourites, but just as the French men showed USA in last night's final, France will not roll over in the final at home. The USA should expect a fierce challenge, the outcome of which could decide the winner of the overall medal table at Paris 2024!!

A Grand Finale

We said it'd go down to the wire and boy, did it go down to the wire. The expectation was that USA would beat France in the W Basketball final and so they needed 1 of their other 3 gold chances to pan out to get to the 40 they'd need to equal China and take the overall victory on Silvers (should be Total medals). The day began with Jennifer Valente winning the Omnium scratch race to take the lead after the first of four events. She then finished 2nd in the Tempo race to give USA a very promising start to the day. In the meantime, Li Wenwen took a dominant win in the W81kg+ Weightlifting event. It wasn't her best but she took the win only needing 4 of her 6 lifts to get it done. She used her last one for a little celebration on stage where she lifted her coach up rather than the weights. With that, China hit 40 golds and the ball was in USA's court. The women's volleyball team hit the ball out of the court a little too often, as Italy beat them in straight sets (it was a great match, Italy have just been the best in the world this year by far). Yuka Kagami then denied Kennedy Blades her opportunity at Wrestling gold in a nail-biting final that was tied 1-1 until the final minute when Kagami scored the first and only takedown of the match to take a closely fought 3-1 win. 2 chances gone, 2 left, 2 golds needed. Ball still in USA's court. Well, Jennifer Valente took the ball and hit it out the park in the W Omnium, with a win in the Elimination race and a brilliantly controlled Points Race to take a convincing win in the Omnium. 1 gold away. That meant is all came down to the USA-France Basketball game. Easy win, right? Well, USA started well but France were fierce in defence, spurred on by the crowd to restrict the US attack and pull the game back to 25-25 at half time. France then had a brilliant start to the 2nd half taking a 10-point lead, which USA quicky bounced back to erase by the end of the 3rd quarter. The 4th quarter was a topsy-turvy back and forth with several lead-changes but rarely separation of more than 2 points. It came down to the final minute with USA having a 2-point lead, that they extended to 4. France scored but the shot clock meant they had to foul to try to get the ball back. That's how we reached the ultimate finale of Paris 2024. 65-64, 1 point game for USA. History on the line for France, a 7-Olympic gold streak and 61-game unbeaten run on the line for the American team, the overall medal tally on the line for USA. 3.8 seconds on the clock. Kahleah Copper with 2 free throws. Boos ring out across the arena. They don't faze her, she makes both shots. 67-64. 3.8 seconds for France to get 3 points. They get the ball out, 3 quick passes, anything to get the ball to Gabby Williams as quickly as possible. It reaches here, she needs to get the shot away just as the buzzer goes off. A buzzer-beater for history, sails through the air. Cheers erupt as it sinks into the basket. We're going to overtime. But a moment's pause and it is ruled a 2-pointer, not 3. We see her foot was inside the line as she took the shot while running forward. 67-66. Time on the clock reads 0. France have lost. A heartbreaking but valiantly earned silver for Gabby Williams and France. USA win gold. Their 40th of the Games. Same as China, but USA have more silvers and more total medals. Whatever tiebreker you prefer, USA have won the Olympics. In the very LAST second of sporting action at Paris 2024, because Williams' buzzer beater was from a few inches too close. What a victory for the USA! What could have been for France, what could have been for China. But that is the story of Paris 2024, it was a story of unlikely triumphs, of close losses, a story of narrow margins. But a story for another time.